Washington Post writer Aaron Blake offers an interesting perspective on switching political parties in order to gain favor with one’s electorate (Most recently, Democrats in the South and Midwest have been jumping across the aisle).
Of the last 12 House members to switch parties only half won their next election… far less than the odds of your average incumbent, while of the last four in the Senate to make the switch, only Joe Lieberman was able to gain re-election.
While it might seem a good idea to join with the winning side, whomever that might be, history, and a little bit of thinking, tell us that this is not the case. Blake, to illustrate his point, tells the story of former Representative Michael Forbes, who switched from Republican to Democrat in 1999.
“In the 2000 campaign — Forbes’ first as a Democrat — the National Republican Congressional Committee sent direct mail reminding Democratic primary voters of his opposition to abortion and gun control provisions. Forbes narrowly lost the primary to a little known, 71-year-old librarian who lost the seat for Democrats in the fall.”
Blake is absolutely right when he says party switches “are a very dangerous proposition. They reek of opportunism and remind many voters of everything they hate about politics.”
